I did some research on this a while back but bear in mind that the data is quite old and may not reflect the current state of the MD market.

The sample I covered was 10 months of offerings over 2010-2011, covering about 90 offers. I only included those that actually launched successfully. Of the 90 the proportion that scammed or defaulted was about 10% by quantity (8 scams). However, total losses to these 8 scams massively outweighed all the interest payments from non-scam offerings, largely due to the sample catching one of the last great MD scam (T4U), which cost investors about 400 billion isk. Bobby was also responsible for two of the other offerings in the period which scammed (I counted individual offerings rather than the people making the offerings). That said, the main thing to come out of the research was that even if more people lost money than made money, this was a result of a dubious investing pattern according to which people typically invested larger amounts in the bigger offerings. The conclusion I came to was that if you took a diversified approach and didn't scale your investments to the offering size but kept them the same size across the basket you could invest a fixed amount in every offering and successfully come in better than the break-even point (just).

tl;dr c. The scam rate was c. 10% 6 or 7 years ago. Not sure what it is now.

Jerry, there have been dozens if not hundreds of successful bonds during that period. Either your memory is faulty or you are deliberately being selective with your data.

Who else TomHorn , think it was for 3.5bill no collateral 3.5% one investor march rabbit.

Keep up the good work Jerry.